Diffusion of heatpumps, PV, EV and batteries

[Christian.winzer]

Has anyone of you come across EU-scenarios regarding diffusion of heat-pumps, PV, EV and batteries among residential consumers, ideally for different income quantiles?

So far I found the following bits of information:

• EU PRIMES model: technology assumptions include cost & efficiency of different heating technologies, however, they do not report the resulting diffusion rates – neither for all households as a whole, nor for different house types or income quantiles.
  https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/ref2020_technology_assumptions.zip
• Swiss Energieperspektiven : include distribution of space heating technologies, separately for existing and new, single family (EZFH) and multi-family (MFH) homes; as well as penetration of different EV types… but do not report this separately for different income quantiles:
  https://www.bfe.admin.ch/bfe/de/home/politik/energieperspektiven-2050-plus.exturl.html/aHR0cHM6Ly9wdWJkYi5iZmUuYWRtaW4uY2gvZGUvcHVibGljYX/Rpb24vZG93bmxvYWQvMTA0NDE=.html

If you know of any further links & hints, thank you in advance for posting them here!
Many greetings,
Christian

[Schimi]

Dear Christian,

I do not know of any scenarios yet.
Nevertheless, I want to indidate that KIT and DLR just startet a project called “En4U” (see attached slide in German) to create such diffusion scenarios for heat pumps, PV+storage, and EV among residential consumers (see EnArgus) in Germany. We want to model these diffusions while considering uncertainties for private and commercial investors of the energy system and see how those two groups interact on the electricity markets.

We do not have any results atm since the project just started, however, do not hestitat to contact us in a few months once we have completed the data-research stage of the project.
2021-05_Jahrestreffen_En4U.pdf (227.0 KB)